JOURNAL OF FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING 22, 2013.y., pp. 173-183
PROBABILISTIC MODELS OF PAVEMENT
DETERIORATION| |
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| DOI: 10.14415/zbornikGFS22.016 |
| UDC: 625.04 |
| CC-BY-SA 4.0 license |
| Author : Dragana Zeljić, Igor Jokanović |
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| | Summary: |
| | Pavements are exposed to repeated traffic load and the effect of the
environment, which eventually leads to deformations and damage. Prediction of
pavement deterioration is essential to determine the parameters for the design of
pavements, and to select appropriate ways of maintaining and planning of major
interventions (rehabilitation and reconstruction). Models for predicting pavement
deterioration can be broadly categorized into deterministic and probabilistic depending
on the method used to simulate pavement aging. This paper deals with prediction of
pavement deterioration using probabilistic methods at the network level by the help of
transition probability matrix and optimization of objective function. The main reason for
underuse of this model by engineers in the past is the difficulty of determining transition
probabilities (i.e. probability that the road at a certain level of deterioration will “pass“
to another level of deterioration) from empirical data or from observation. As a possible
solution to this problem, the paper will describe methods for the determination of
transition probabilities, chose optimum and give recommendations for their use. |
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| | Keywords: |
| | Pavement condition, pavement deterioration, probabilistic methods, Markov
chains, optimization, transition probabilities. |
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